Regards our future relations I have no doubt. We are talking about confederation. So confederation is alliance, union formed by one or several states or cities for the success of definite targets.
For me only equivalent partnership has a sense. When we start to play our own games in confederacy that will be first day of the end. We will do exactly what happened to us during Rzeczpospolita. I want to make confederation important for every one of us, for ordinary people. This is important, otherwise in crisis moment we will not be united and we will start to play against each other. Better to not start anything if we want to make politics besides back.

Agree.

(...)

I wait for hydrocarbons boom in USA. Than price for oil and gas will drop greatly. We know that Russia GDP depend on oil and gas. Already this year USA overcatch Russia. They want to use hydrocarbon to acceleration their economy. But in my opinion they are preparing themselves to eventual conflict in Asia as well. For that purpose they need to be independent . As I know Russia they will not stay aside, and also Caucasus waits for another chance. Dagestan still is not quiet.

Przewalski Nikolai Mikhailovich

We in Belarus, there is still a cult of Stalin, it confirms the similarity of the methodologies and philosophy of Lukashenka's rule relying on Stalinism which found support among the people, is also confirms the promotion of Stalin's symbolism in the historic memorial complex "Line of Stalin", in the launch of Minsk community transport (autobus) of Stalin, as well as in a variety indirect signs of Stalin, which does not negate of their symbolic value.

The cult of Stalin in Belarus is not casual, in fact one of the versions, Stalin is the unofficial son of Nikolai Mikhailovich Przewalski (while he was engaged in research in Central Asia, where Stalin is born), which in turn is representative of the old Belarusian noble family and the prince's blood.

What do you think, about to the Belarusian throne was a descendant of Stalin, who is having the great merit (opening cosmic era) to the whole civilization and while not breaking the traditions of the throne, because was a prince of blood.

That is the real prerogative rightly? you isn't it agree?

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Novusus Ordo Seclorumcheg

its our own forum clown, don´t worry.

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Фракция любителей альпинизма им. Р.Меркадера

Clown - is the one who hero of folk anecdote:
One belorusman - is it belarusian partisan.
Two belorusmans - is it belarusian partisan troop.
Three belorusmans - is it belarusian partisan troop with betrayer.

PS Kurmbumbek, answer your self pls, why or who is throw mud belarusian to belarusian for fun foreigners?

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Novusus Ordo Seclorumcheg

go play outside, pls.

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Фракция любителей альпинизма им. Р.Меркадера

A lot of people in Poland just don't get it. There isn't going to be any economic collapse in Belarus. Economically, in terms of wealth per capita, Belarus is twice higher than Ukraine. Twice!

It is also higher than Bulgaria, or Romania - the EU members - despite all the EU subsidies they get.

Waiting for an economic collapse in Belarus is a useless waste of time, despite all the doom and gloom articled in the Western press. If you want a confederation, we need to start doing joint projects already now.

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(...)

Thats a different matter. This could happen indeed.

A crisis in Russia is also very likely. However not an economic one, but a political. There is a direct tendency: the worse is the political situation in Russia, the higher are pro-western views in Belarus.

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(...)

I have found in one forum question regarding our confederation. Not sure I can find answer in previous conversations so :
What do you guys look for in confederation and what Poland can offer you?

Hi Rysio,

That's a very good question. In my personal opinion there are several points that need to be said before aswering your question:                   

1) The Polish-Belarusian confederation could be only an introduction into smth bigger. An example for others. Something that will cover most of the region. 

If it's just for Poles and Belarusians we can stop already now. In the best case scenario it will fail same way as the first Rzeczpospolia.                                                                  

2) It cannot be a union, a federation, a confederation, or any other "older" form that is built around one center. We need smth fundamentaly new. The best term I find is "a network".       

If you ask today any Czech, or a Slovak, or a Croat if they want any new kind of a regional union - they will tell you "thank you, we had enough already". The negativity among Belarusians might be not as big, but there is no question that it will evolve to a similar level over time.

At the same time, everyone admits that their voice isn't heard, and that they need more power that could come only through a joint effort. Thus, we need a network that helps to accumulate powers in certain areas (like military, foreign policy, super projects), but leave enough developnental freedoms to each member. We need to have certain areas where we "agree to disagree" and respect choices of each other. 

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Having said that, each member of the network has its unique DNA that it brings into the joint pot.

What is needed from Poland?

1) The main carrier of the democratic and noble legacy of the 1st Rzeczpospolita.

2) The largest economy of the region.

3) Potentially - a leader in charge of the joint military strategy of the network.

4) The key carrier of the Catholic legacy of the region. (Our network is almost "The Fourth Rome". The tool for the European Christian civilization to reunite back again between its Catholic and Orthodox, Latin and Cyrillic, gnostic and agnostic parts).

Within the complex structure of the network Poland will have its natural counterbalances:

For matters of religion - Romania;
For matters of culture - Ukraine;
For matters of business - Czech Republic;
For matters of leadership - Hungary.

Thus, each member, Poland including, should be viewed not only on its own merits, but also as a part of a bigger system with its own unique role. Like a part within a car, or an organ within a body.

In other words, Poland just needs to be itself - Poland.

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Superb question.

But I can ask even a better one.

What do you guys hope to find in Belarus (except deposits of potassium salts and transit of russian resources)?

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Все хотят добра. Не отдавайте его.(с)

Great point, Mog.

That's exactly why I'm trying to explain that the whole is much more important than the sum of parts. The entire suggested union makes sense only as a new kind of a system, not as a tool to grab some land and people.

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That does not exclude the legitimate point that Belarus has yet to prove itself for the Intermarium, it is yet to find its unique role, something others could respect it for.

Otherwise, as our Russian visitor in the neighboring thread put it correctly: the worst thing Lukashenko did for Belarus is that he spoiled its people. They forgot how to provide for themselves and live only off Russian donations.

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I cannot speak for all Poles; I can only write what I am looking for.
1.Seems to me that modern and reach west countries goal is to subject small countries in our region. Poland is too small to fight back countries like Germany or Russia. I mean not only war as a military conquest but also economic subordination. In same situation are rest countries in our region. In my opinion we are field of the game for bigger and stronger than us. I would like to change such situation. To reach it we need bigger country, confederation with common idea to unite us. We have not a chance to create such confederation with Germany or Russia; always we will be treated as an object of the policy. But Poland and Belarus are quite same so our common relationship could be equal. Same to Ukraine, Czech Republic or Slovaks etc.
2.Common market helps us to modernize and improve market efficiency. Internal market will be also valuable.
3.As a confederation we would be stronger in military aspects. It is not easy to conquer one hundred million (or even more) country.
4.At last what maybe will be most important it is potential of one hundred million citizens.

I 98% agree with Rysio. With the only exception that it shouldn't be a country.

We are doomed to invent something new. A new type of a political organism, that is united from outside (foreign policy, military, etc.), but flexible and competitive within (as we discussed it here - antifragile). Learn the mistakes of the EU.

And I 200% agree with Rysio that we need a common IDEA. It is however yet to be found.

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2 Rysio & Woloh

I will not argue with you two, it'll take too much time and will be useless.

How do you see the answer to the main political question:

Who will be friends and who will be foes of the newly born confederation?

Answering that question means making the choice of everything: of ideas, of political system, of foreign policy, of military standards, of weaponry you're going to buy, of economical model.

Please, don't tell me about the peaceful coexistence of free people in a free world, and other wishful thinking.

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Все хотят добра. Не отдавайте его.(с)

As Einstein said: darkness - the absence of light.
As Kupala said: to be a human - is not to be a cattle.
I think: so that was Great Union (Intermarium) - so that wasn`t little controversis.

My frriend, how you will overcoming "little controversis":
- in ethnos: poles-western slavic group vs belarusian-eastern slavic group;
- in religion: poles-catholics vs belarusian-orthodox;
- in language: poles-latinica vs belarusian-cyrillica;

As someone Great said: with such friends - dont need to hostile people.

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Novusus Ordo Seclorumcheg

Don't you find it a little black and white?
A confederation will have its internal interests - that will be the main guidance for its foreign policy. Without them it will not come into existence.

Can you really call Germans "enemies" to the Poles? Can you really call Russians "enemies" to Belarusians? No. These terms are not applicable in a post-modern Europe. On different issues the confederation will be either allied, or opposed to Germany, Russia, USA, China, or any other country, or block for that matter.

Right now there is absolutely no one to defend our interests. And for this reason today our interests are simply flashed into a toilet: by Russia within the Eurasian Union, by Germany within the EU. We are treated as people who are not allowed to have an opinion.

As Rysio pointed out, just because countries of Intermarium are much more equal in size, and with similar historical lessons learned, a better balanced union is much more likely than what we currently have (especially here in Belarus).

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Yep, and everybody speaks English. Which is neither Catholic, nor Orthodox, nor even Slavic. Welcome to the XXI century

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Oh, yeah... English... XXI century...

International laws written in English juridical slang....

English language of trade laws, language of contracts and treaties...

A little riddle:

Who does better understand and speak English, an Englishman or an indigene of a colonized country?

Oh, yeah... English... XIX century...

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Все хотят добра. Не отдавайте его.(с)

It's ok. The Finnish and Turkic tribes learnt the Slavic language when evolution pressed them. Today they call themselves "Russians". Despite having various accents. English is a force of nature in the modern world, whether you like it or not.

Even if Intermarium doesn't come into existence Belarusians will learn English anyway. They will have no choice - same as other Central-Eastern Europeans. Simply if they want to make any money.

Even more so. Without Intermarium Belarusians will learn English even faster. Because they will have even less leverage in the modern world.

A great example is the ongoing Belaruskaliy-Uralkalyi war between Belarusians and Russians. Russians had all the dominant positions in the holding company not lastly because Belarusians simply couldn't even speak good English. Good news - now they will have to learn it

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As Einstein said: darkness - the absence of light.
As Kupala said: to be a human - is not to be a cattle.
I think: so that was Great Union (Intermarium) - so that wasn`t little controvers`s.

My frriends, how you will overcoming "little controvers`s":
- in culture: poles-western slavic group vs belarusian-eastern slavic group;
- in religion: poles-catholics vs belarusian-orthodox;
- in language: poles-latinica vs belarusian-cyrillica;
- in history: poles with Europa is good result vs belarusian with Russia is better result vs poles with belarusian is nothing result;

As someone Great said: people who don`t remember history - don`t have future.

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Novusus Ordo Seclorumcheg

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Novusus Ordo Seclorumcheg

I know that word ‘country’ has negative connotation. I know that only confederation is a solution for us but in another hand I would like to make somehow our confederation in our political consciousness homogenous organism. I afraid that only economic affairs are not enough. One day somebody will offer better price and confederation share Rzeczpospolita fate. We have to find something to join us, something what will permit to think about confederation as a common system ( constitutional monarchy ?). Animosity to Belarus must be treated as an animosity to Poland and vice versa. . EU is a Union and what is the result, every country tries to make own policy. If we will find such link we create confederation. What is it, this is a question.
in culture: poles-western slavic group vs belarusian-eastern slavic group
I cannot see problem. Belarusians notice us as a western group, western culture. Western countries notice us as an eastern country maybe even eastern culture. So where is true? Who divide us and named western and eastern? Maybe it is evidence that some time ago we were together? Some time ago I have found theories on the origin of Croats. They are from Cracow.

in religion: poles-catholics vs belarusian-orthodox
Stil we are Christians.
in language: poles-latinica vs belarusian-cyrillica
Biełaruskaja łacinka naradziłasia ŭ časy kali narody Eŭropy farmavałi svaje pravapisy. Na žal, biełarusy j ichniaja kultura trapili ŭ nadzvyčaj niespryjalnyja ŭmovy, nie zvažajučy na jakija sučasnaja biełaruskaja mova ŭsio ž pajaviłasia, i abrała dla siabie łacinskuju systemu piśma
As we see Belarusian language was written in Latin alphabet.
in history: poles with Europa is good result vs belarusian with Russia is better result vs poles with belarusian is nothing result
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNgqNA7HRHc
It is true first union was not successful but my question is why and if we can avoid previous mistakes.

+100%

As you have said it before - we need a joint IDEA!

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That's right:



Михаил Веллер, русский писатель: "Раздел Украины, Беларуси и Польши есть большая трагедия единого в сущности народа, которому по большому счету нечего в сущности делить"

Belarus with Poland: Krevo Union (1385) - Third Partition (1795) = 410 years together (объединились добровольно!)

Belarus with Russia: Third Partition (1795) - Collapse of the USSR (1991) = 196 year together (захвачена силой)

I can only agree with you!

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Funny you mention that. Exactly something we've been discussing here.

However, I don't think that a royal persona could be a valid substitution to a unifying idea.

There were two Intermarian attempts in our region:

1) Rzeczpospolita
2) Austria-Hungarian Empire

I think the closest who came to finding the right formula was Archduke Franz Ferdinand right before his death. But again, Austria-Hungary didn't really have a unifying idea, but tried to have a mock-up instead, embodied in the persona of an emperor.

We shouldn't be afraid of our differences. It's ok to have them. Moreover - it's a good thing to have differences. And that's exactly why we should be joining our forces - to defend the right to have our differences, and our opinions. Nobody else will care about them.

I think the best modern example for us from this perspective should be the early United States.

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Hopefully we can change that

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Немного в тему.
Я и не знал, что был такой.

Аляксандр Ходзька
1828

ГЕРБЫ

І
«З бітвы ў ляшскай краіне
Мчыш ты, рыцар-ліцвіне, –
Меч аголены над галавою.
Конь твой белы, бы з снегу,
Гром абгоніць у бегу –
Іскры толькі ды пыл за табою».

II
«Я – ліцвінаў Пагоня,
Меч сынам нясу ў звоне –
Ён крывёй яшчэ ляшскай дыміцца.
Змалку бітвы хай знаюць,
Да крыві прывыкаюць,
Што я ліў і што зноў будзе ліцца.

III
А ў кургане я лягу –
Хай сыны меч пры сцягу
Мой павесяць з сяброўкай-касою.
Ды па мне хай не плачуць,
Як той меч будуць бачыць –
Пакідаю для славы ім зброю».

IV
«Што ляціш, Орле белы.
Ты з Літвы, ачмурэлы?
Бы кап’ё, твая вострая дзюба.
Грудзі з дзюбаю тою
Ты запэцкаў крывёю.
Сядзь ля Нёмна, змый кроў. Як тут люба!»

V
«Я – арол, птах палякаў,
З племя грозных ваякаў.
На радзіму спяшаю цяпер я.
Чужакам дні і ночы
Дзёўб я грудзі і вочы,
Ды змываць кроў не буду я з пер’я.

VI
Кроў з літоўскае жылы!
Смак крыві гэтай мілы
Арлянятам сваім занясу я.
Хай мая ўся радзіна
Найхутчэй кроў ліцвіна,
Каб маніла на бой, пакаштуе!»

VII
«Досыць, Орле, Пагоня!
Не вастрыце ад сёння
Зброю ўжо двум народам на муку!
Згінуць войны, пажары,
Тыя вечныя свары:
Лях ліцвіну працягвае руку!

\/ІІІ
Сёння разам, у згодзе
Мчацца ў бой пры нагодзе,
Як браты, два суседзі праз гоні.
Мільгацяць па абшарах
На шчытах і штандарах
Побач Белы арол і Пагоня».

Аляксандр Ходзька
1828

Аляксандр ХОДЗЬКА (Барэйка; 30 жніўня 1804, г.п. Крывічы, Мядзельскі раён Мінскай вобл. — 27 снежня 1891) — паэт, фалькларыст, славіст, усходазнавец.

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Первые Упоминания О Литве. Литвины - Потомки Лютичей.
http://samlib.ru/e/rogatina/lutizi.shtml
Литевичи, как одна из форм названия "Лютичи" - в Хронике 12 века!....

Mr. Serge, it's offtopic here.

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Фракция любителей альпинизма им. Р.Меркадера

Yesterday we had Independent day. Again was noisily on the streets but now will be even more noisily in TV. Once again we will start talk about our independence and national sovereignty. As you probably know Poles are divided about fifty-fifty with their vision of Poland. That partition intensified after crush of our president plane. Government does not show the wish of the honest explanation of the crush. In such situation if nothing changed probably next election will win ‘PIS’. PIS is not my favorite party but we have not at the moment another strong opposition. Question is how big difference will be between ‘PIS’ and ‘PO’ to let rule ‘PIS’ individually.
You guys have as well huge job to do. Russia loses Ukraine what means that only Belarus will stay at their said. They cannot afford to lose Belarus so as said it will be very hard to create Confederacy between us. Very hard doesn’t mean impossible.
In Poland we talk more and more regarding confederacy. Of course only on blogs but this is good beginning. Our job is to break stereotypes ( for example many Poles think that after confederation we have to hold financially Belarus what is not true, another fear is that we will once again be involved in dispute with Russia what is not true as well). With confederacy or without confederacy we will have always the same relationship with Russia. This is a matter of Russian vision of Europe.

Perfect holiday. With the Russian Embassy especially. Guilty will be punished this time, isn't it?

I do not support such behavior but in other hand I would await same behavior from Russia . The history teaches me that we have not a chance to count on this.