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 Заголовок сообщения: The Confederation of Intermarium
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The Confederation of Intermarium
K. Woloh



"We the Peoples of Intermarium, in order to provide freedoms and liberties of our citizens, serve their prosperity and wellbeing, ensure continuous progress and development, establish common defence and empower global voice of each and all our members, are creating this union of free nations and declare:..."

These, or similar words could one day lay the foundation for a new reality in Central Eastern Europe (CEE). The idea of Intermarium - a confederation of Central and Eastern European states located between Germany and Russia - increasingly preoccupies minds of analysts both inside, and outside of the region. This article discusses one of possible scenarios of how such a union could be brought into reality.

WHY. The premises of Intermarium

A new geopolitical union could materialize if it has not only theoretical foundation, but also an immediate tangible reason for its creation. Entities erected just to look good on a map, or to please someone's fantom anxieties of the past do not tend to last. There needs to be a clear and vital task that such a union could help to address in a practical way.

In case of Intermarium this task is survival in a globalized world. Countries of Central and Eastern Europe have already learned that voices of small nations could be at best ignored, and at worst - overruled to have a foreign will imposed on them when their position differs from that of more significant partners.

To become heard in a new global world our small countries need an extra leverage. And this leverage could come in a form of the Confederation of Intermarium. Creation of this mechanism is not something merely nice to have, but it becomes a matter of our survival and adequate long-term development vis-a-vis the rest of the world, especially if political stagnation in the EU and Russia continues to persist.

Изображение

There are four primary tasks that such a confederation could and should address:
1 - Common defense
2 - United geopolitical voice
3 - Global projection of power
4 - Developmental macro-projects

In other words, we are largely talking about united armed forces (the first step towards which was introduced by creation of the Visigrad Battle Group between Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic), as well as united foreign policy including a common voice within such global organizations as the UN, the EU, NATO, G20 (CEE is currently not even represented in the latter), and bilateral relations with key players like the USA, China, India, Russia, etc.

HOW. The gears of Intermarium

Creation of the Intermarian Confederation will likely depend on two factors: 1. protracted crisis within the EU, where desires to fix ongoing leaks will lead to even more disbalances between its members; and 2. deteriorating political situation in Russia where an explosive mix of political, structural, demographic, and nationalistic problems could marginalize the country. In other words, birth of a new union in Intermarium could be largely shaped by outside factors, and by no means is a guaranteed deal. But so was birth of any other union - from the early United States till the modern EU.

In addition, evolution of the Confederation of Intermarium will not happen overnight. Despite its economic and demographic potential the region largely lacks a proxy for a "common culture", "common self-understanding", and even "common language for communication". All these things could gradually evolve in convergence points of Intermarium - so-called Intermarian hubs described later in this article - which themselves are yet to be created.

Nevertheless, we can predict and analyze required governing mechanisms of the Intermarian Confederation already today.

Two prominent researchers of Intermarium - Jonathan Levy and Marek Jan Chodakiewicz - looked into possibilities of creating a union of Intermarian states, and identified two fundamental principles that should lay in its foundation.

First, Dr. Levy in his book "The Intermarium: Wilson, Madison, & East Central European Federalism" defended the point that modern mechanisms of democratic federalism can help create a balanced union where voices of all members are equally heard without making the union politically dysfunctional.

Second, Prof. Chodakiewicz in his book "Intermarium: The Land between the Black and Baltic Seas" identified that Intermarium can be created largely as a structure with a significant degree of internal liberalism, and as little imposed regulations as possible. According to him the structure of Intermarium should rather evolve from an ecosystem of horizontal ties as opposed to vertical ones.

These points nicely comply with the tasks of Intermarium that we have outlined earlier. Ditto, Intermarium will need to become the opposite of the EU in its approach to integration: be more aggressive in delegating authority in global affairs (like military, or international presence), and yet maintain - and even defend from an outside diktat - sovereignty of its member states in domestic affairs such as economy, culture, social issues. Such an approach is somewhat reminiscent of the founding principles of the USA where the president has the ultimate authority in shaping foreign policy, and is highly limited when it comes to domestic matters. Significant differences in current socio-economic policies of Intermarian countries imply that the primary regulator of such affairs within Intermarium could only be markets, competition, free flow of abundant information, and gradual evolution, as opposed to social engineering Brussels-style.

As for the federal political system of Intermarium, the German example seems to be the best one to follow with few adjustments. The ultimate authority of the confederation should rest with the Intermarian Parliament (again - a stark difference from the EU). A political party, or a block which won the majority will be able to appoint the Chancellor of Intermarium, as well as his/her Cabinet. To mitigate nationalistic divisions only Intermarian political parties could participate in elections. To qualify for the status of an "Intermarian Party" one needs to win the support of at least 10% of voters within each member state - thus, all Intermarian parties will be forced to stay relevant to all member countries, and the Intermarian political field will be more difficult to enter for marginalized outliers. Election of an Intermarian president doesn't seem to be practical/needed, and could only contribute to nationalistic divisions within the union. On the opposite, each nation should be free to maintain its own domestic executive authority which will assume ultimate responsibility for implementation and consequences of economic and social issues.

Each nation should retain freedom to leave the union if such a step is approved by its supermajority of votes. This way Intermarium will be under pressure to continuously generate value for its members - not in the form of trivial subsidies, like some neo-empires choose to do today, but in the form of real tangible work that Intermarian authorities perform for their citizens.

WHO. The founding members of Intermarium.

Even though the Confederation of Intermarium could start its growth from bi-party, or multi-party regional unions (like the Visigrad Group, or the Belarusian-Polish confederation) it seems important to launch the proper union already in such a shape that would be immediately sustainable even without further growth.

In other words, this article tries to identify the absolute minimum number of states which should participate in the inception of the Confederation of Intermarium. Surely, this does not preclude other Intermarian countries - from Bulgaria to the Baltic trio to Slovenia - from joining at launch. But which countries literally cannot be "avoided" at the first step? From our view it includes eight states:

1) POLAND. The historic cradle.
Изображение

To a large degree the Confederation of Intermarium builds upon the democratic and federalist legacy of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Poland - the closest successor to this legacy and the largest economy in Intermarium - will be an inseparable part of any democratic union in the region. In addition, demonstrated resilience of the Polish economy to the European economic crisis carries a DNA blueprint that can help Intermarium evolve into an economic superpower where business efficiency within the union is empowered through free competition and knowledge flow. There will be no union without Poland.

2) UKRAINE. The source of power.
Изображение

Modern Ukraine is the largest individual market within Intermarium with significant growth potential - a California of our region, or a mini-China of sorts. Without Ukraine Intermarium remains mostly a club of midget-states. Two entirely different weight categories: with Ukraine Intermarium is a true global leader, without Ukraine - a regional player at best. Intermarium needs all of Ukraine - not just half of it, and it needs to learn how to accommodate it. Similarly, Ukraine needs Intermarium to secure stable and transparent rules of the game within itself.

3) ROMANIA. The carrier of balance.
Изображение

Intermarium is a compromise between its East and its West, between the Catholic civilization and the Orthodox one, between Latin and Cyrillic worlds. None of two sides will ever accept to be a permanent minority within the union. This is why Romania is the true key to Intermarium. A Latin country yet of the Orthodox rite it is a unique balancing player without which Intermarium is doomed to slide into the pitfalls of the late Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Additionally, having Romania in is a stability factor for Ukraine, because in this case splitting of the latter will not be able to cut Intermarium off the Black Sea, and thus there will be a lesser incentive to pursue this route by opponents of the union.

4) HUNGARY. The knights of the union.
Изображение

Hungary has been taunted by the ghosts of Trianon for almost a century. These ghosts are crippling the progress of both Hungary itself, as well as the region in general. Intermarium is a chance for Hungary to turn the tide and to achieve the impossible - translate its weakness into its strength. Yes, Hungarian communities are now spread across many Intermarian countries. But it is exactly because of this that Hungarians could become the most Intermarian nation of them all. Hungarians could reinvent themselves by evolving into the champions of Intermarium. Only within Intermarium the Hungarians could be united again. But this time as promoters and defenders of the new union, keepers of its noble heritage, and building upon diversity of Hungarian communities across the region.

5) SLOVAKIA. The key connector.
Изображение

Nothing happens in Intermarium unless Slovakia signs under it. Quite literally Slovakia is the epicenter of everything in the CEE. One can try building any kind of unions, blocs, and alliances in our region, but at the end of the day everything comes to the Slovak table. Slovakia has been a proud and innovative performer in New Europe, and will undoubtedly be one of leaders within Intermarium. When Intermarium launches its own space program - which it will undoubtedly do as one of global powers - perhaps, it will not come as a surprise that a highly international country like Slovakia could be spearheading it same as it led in other innovative segments during post-communist transformation.

6) BELARUS. The launch pad.
Изображение

What Slovakia is to geography Belarus is to geopolitics. The one who controls Belarus maintains a blocking vote in the entire region. Without Belarus in Intermarium there is no united Ukraine in the union. Without united Ukraine there is no power in Intermarium, and thus no real reason for its creation. In addition, Belarus is the least satisfied with its geopolitical status quo, and will inevitably become a place from which the core Intermarian events will kick off. Belarus cannot go into Intermarium gradually. It will go suddenly, and all in. Changes in Belarus will signal the beginning of Intermarium itself.

7) CZECH REPUBLIC. The beacon of sanity.
Изображение

Similar to how Romania balances Intermarium on the East-West divide, the Czech Republic is crucial to achieving a similar balance on modern social values. Belarus and Ukraine are the least religious and the most urbanized countries of Intermarium. And it is exactly the Czech Republic that shares similar social traits on the Western side of the union, and with some support from Slovakia and Hungary can help mitigate social disparities within the confederation along the lines of religiosity and urbanization. Without the Czech Republic the Intermarian structure will crack as a misbalanced concrete plate. Not to mention traditional leadership of the Czechs on the issues of personal freedoms, unlike anyone else in the CEE.

8) CROATIA. The token of domination.
Изображение

The core reason for creation of the Confederation of Intermarium is the emergence of a new global leader. Such a leader absolutely requires access to open seas. Unfortunately, exits from both the Baltics and the Black Sea are constrained by other countries. And a player of the level and ambition of Intermarium cannot afford operating at the mercy of other - even though friendly - powers. At the same time, Croatia is the most direct access point into the Adriatics, and it needs to be a part of the union from day one as a statement to undeniable Intermarian claim to unrestrained waters. Croatia is the keeper of Split - the home to the former Yugoslav naval headquarters. This city could eventually become the key naval base for the union, and a launchpad for projection of the Intermarian power globally. Croatia is a vital part of Intermarium.

The union of suggested eight countries is merely one of scenarios to create a global player from Day One, which could substantially mitigate existential risks for Intermarum and close the space for maneuver to Intermarian opponents. Another reason to start from a “sustainable minimum” is to make sure that early days are not bogged in an endless quagmire of arguing, and development of common rules does not turn into an Eastern bazaar.

WHAT. The effects of Intermarium.

CONFLICTS

At the time of its conception the Confederation of Intermarium will have to avoid expanding to countries with ongoing and/or frozen conflicts to prevent providing of unnecessary leverage to Intermarian opponents. However, regardless of whether those countries join the confederation later or not, the new union will have to assume leadership in resolving trouble areas in its backyard:

1) Transnistria. This will be the priority conflict to permanently settle because Moldova is located almost in the middle of Intermarium, and could be a significant destabilizing factor. The fate of Moldova will largely lay in the hands of the Moldovans. They will have to decide if they want to re-join Romania, or to stay independent. But in any case, Ukraine will have to assume a much more active and mature role in resolving the conflict by providing security to the Transnistrians, and thus untying the hands of Romania and Moldova in deciding on the ways of resolution. The Moldova-Transnistrian conflict will have to be fully resolved by the Intermarians, not by outside powers. The role of Intermarium will be to provide the umbrella environment for this resolution.

2) Bosnia. The frozen war, deadlocked political system, and unclear future are crippling the region and ruining people’s prospects in life. Large number of the Croats in Bosnia will also be a destabilizing factor for the Adriatic outpost of the confederation. It will have to be resolved. Neither Croatia, nor Serbia, nor Bosnia can have a secure future without complete and self-sufficient settlement of this war. The fighting sides need to get completely separated, and stop being engaged into a forceful marriage. Intermarium will have to ensure a civilized and balanced solution, where lives of people are the priority.

3) Kosovo. This is another example of a smoldering conflict. Serbia - a potential candidate for a membership in the confederation - will need to find a lasting resolution to this conflict, potentially fully engaging Albania on this one, before it could re-join Intermarium. The confederation will need to make sure that a fair long-term solution is found, and provide financing of its empowering.

4) Gypsies. The problem of the gypsy minority across many CEE countries was completely mismanaged by the Brussels authorities through imposing of alien practices and throwing gasoline on nationalistic fires, and as a result life conditions of this nation in many countries has continuously deteriorated bringing it at odds with variety of host nations which similarly feel a lot of pain. One of the best examples of handling and accommodating the Gypsy minority is Hungary, and this is another area where Hungary is essential to securing stability of Intermarium as a whole. In any case, the “Gypsy issue” will need a civilized resolution that combines de-politicised proactive police mandate with clear and secure live prospects for the Romany people, and especially children.

POLITICAL SPECTRUM

The suggested minimal composition of the Confederation of Intermarium of eight founding countries represents a union that will be politically balanced across variety of axes. We have already mentioned the role of Romania in stabilizing the union across "older", more traditional lines of division, and the role of the Czech Republic in bringing balance to "modern", post-industrial spectrum of values.

A vibrant, competitive, and yet balanced political field is an important factor for progress of any union where different ideas collide, evolve, and none of them becomes a monopoly. It is important to remember that none of the sides of a political spectrum is immune from marginalization and failures, and a second opinion is always required for progress same as the second leg for walking.

According to the methodology suggested by the World Values Survey, a Stockholm based non-profit association, Romania and the Czech Republic almost represent two opposite corners of the Intermarian political spectrum between which all other countries of our region are located. (However, it is important to keep in mind that this methodology is neither perfect, nor all-inclusive, the chosen criteria predominantly favor Scandinavian values, and do not account for distortions of the transition period).

Изображение

According to this criteria eight suggested initial members roughly represent four buckets. A more conservative bucket - red (Romania, Hungary), a more liberal bucket - blue (the Czech Republic, Slovakia), a bucked of preference towards collective good and secular values - purple (Belarus, Ukraine), and a bucket of preference towards individual freedoms and more traditional/religious values - green (Poland, Croatia). Again, this is a very rough representation. For example, on the issue of secular vs. traditional values Hungary in rather closer to Slovakia than to Romania, and on the issue of personal vs. collective good Slovakia is closer to Belarus than to the Czech Republic.

Изображение

And even though some buckets include heavier (more populous) countries than others, what is important is that things are actually relatively balanced when we compare countries across two suggested axes:

On secular vs. religious values:
UA + BY + CZ + SK = 70 million people (secular)
RO + HU + PL + CR = 74 million people (religious)

On collective vs. personal good:
CZ + SK + PL + CR = 59 million people (personal)
UA + BY + RO + HU = 86 million people (collective)

Again, one cannot assume that countries are monotonous within, and in reality the political spectrum of the Confederation of Intermarium might be even more balanced (for example, Ukraine and Romania might have a significant liberal wing within).

Further, the goal of a country on a cross-roads like Belarus should be to avoid political temptation of moving closer to "the Polish example” by growing its religiosity, like some opposition parties suggest today. (In reality, it will put Belarus closer to Romania instead of to Poland). But on the opposite, concentrate on migrating from the purple bucket to the right - into the blue one (closer to the Czech Republic) by promoting respect for personal freedoms, fostering self expression, and protecting private initiative. This will help to balance the confederation even further.

INTERMARIAN HUBS

A research into the civilizational legacy of Intermarium helps to identify convergence points for establishment of Intermarian Hubs - highly international places and surrogates for future mega-cities where all people of Intermarium could come together and develop foundation for a joint supra-national culture of the region. These hubs will be almost the opposite to national states of the confederation, and will help to introduce another line of balance in the region along the National-Supranational axis.

Изображение

Point A on the picture above is the crossing between Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine. This location is characterized by accessibility (it lies in an open Northern European Plain close to diverse transport infrastructure), and is an ideal meeting place for investors and workforce from various markets. A point like this could be a good place for a business hub of Intermarium.

Point B, on the opposite, is characterized by security. Being protected from North, East, and South by the Carpathian Mountains and by the Alps further in the West, it is at the same time a place of unique diversity within Intermarium. As the legacy of the Protestantism in the Eastern part of the Hungarian Kingdom this area is the key place where all main Intermarian sub-civilizations meet. Protestant, Catholic, and Orthodox traditions. Visigrad, Balkan, and Dniepr geopolitical subgroups. Slavic, Ugric, and Latin linguistic families. This point is a great place for a political hub of Intermarium.

Last, but not least is Point C - the Croatian port of Rijeka. Located on the shores of the Adriatic it is a maritime gateway from Intermarium into the open world. Once the largest port of the Hungarian Kingdom, and later of Yugoslavia, it is currently undergoing renovations to become the largest port of the Adriatic Sea by 2030. However, within the fabric of the EU this backyard port doesn't nearly have as much potential as when it is included into the Intermarian equation. Even today the main markets for the Rijeka's cargoes are seen in the CEE. For example, construction of the liquefied natural gas terminal on the nearby island of Krk focuses on recipients from Hungary to Poland (thus, Rijeka is also an important factor for energy security of Intermarium). But within the confederation political importance of Rijeka will grow enormously, and it could become one of focal points for pan-Intermarian developmental projects.

The Croatian coast in general is an important geopolitical factor for Intermarium. The naval base in Split was already mentioned above as a potential key hub for the Intermarian Navy - neither Black, nor Baltic seas are a good location for it. A political union of the magnitude of the Intermarian Confederation will need to be able to assume a global leadership role, and perhaps one day we will see Intermarian aircraft carriers off the coast of Split operated by cross-national crews of Poles, Romanians, Ukrainians, Slovaks, and others.

Conclusion

Manned spaceflight program, nuclear aircraft carriers, new age high-speed railroad network - all these and other cutting edge public commodities remain inaccessible luxury goods for “Eastern Europeans” within the foreseeable future under the existing rules of the game. Never again a Slovak guy like Ivan Bella, or a Romanian guy like Dumitru Prunariu will fly into space. But does Intermarium really need outside sponsors to achieve all those things? Is it really not capable of leading the way by itself, and doomed for a role of a pathetic follower instead? Forget expensive toys - can it not simply take full responsibility for well being of its citizens regardless of what’s going on in the rest of the world?

Creation of the Confederation of Intermarium will form the biggest European power capable of both facing and shaping the future. Its population will be larger than that of France and Germany combined. It will even surpass a seemingly huge Russia. On the business side, the confederation will be one of the biggest and most promising world markets. Its real GDP could well overtake that of Germany to become the fifth largest world economy after the USA, China, India, and Japan, totaling up to $3.2 trillion (based on a realistic assumption that the Intermarian GDP per capita in comparable prices could at least average on the current level of Poland - $21,310). And unlike Western Europe it will be a growing economy. Its military will be the fourth largest in the world after USA, China, and Russia, potentially overtaking Russia due to its younger, more modern status.

The Confederation of Intermarium should not be seen as an opposition to the EU - it could well remain a part of the union if it chooses so (and if the EU still exists by then). Instead, Intermarium should be seen as "a part of united Europe that actually works", and it works for its people - not against them. The confederation will finally turn the most of Central / Eastern / Balkan Europe into a united powerful player that becomes the epicenter of the European civilization including its Western and Russian parts, and capable of proactively leading our continent as a true global player. It is surely achievable because all that separates us from it is our own will.

---------------------------------------
Bibliography

1) Jonathan Levy, The Intermarium: Wilson, Madison, & East Central European Federalism
2) Marek J. Chodakiewicz, Intermarium: The Land between the Black and Baltic Seas
3) The World Values Survey Association, World Values Survey
4) A. Vorotnicky, Rzeczpospolita?

_________________
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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: The Confederation of Intermarium
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 21 ноя 2012, 01:48 
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:bra_vo:

Але:

"Surely, this does not preclude other Intermarian countries - from Bulgaria to the Baltic trio to Slovenia - from joining at launch. But which countries literally cannot be "avoided" at the first step? From our view it includes eight states..."

=================

Не згодзен.

Без прыбалтаў на першым этапе ня будзе і другога.


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Больш рэальна фармаванне на першым этапе палітыка-эканамічнае уз'яднанне вялікіх груп блізкіх і па ўзроўню развіцця і геаграфічна і ментальна.

Тыпу
1. РБ + Укр. + Прыб.
2. РП + Вуг. + Слав.
3, Рум. + Малд. + Балг.


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: The Confederation of Intermarium
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Максим Равский писал(а):
:bra_vo:

Але:

"Surely, this does not preclude other Intermarian countries - from Bulgaria to the Baltic trio to Slovenia - from joining at launch. But which countries literally cannot be "avoided" at the first step? From our view it includes eight states..."

=================

Не згодзен.

Без прыбалтаў на першым этапе ня будзе і другога.

Прибалты классные ребята, но предложенный подход основывался на двух принципах:

1) Определить самый минимум - без кого обойтись никак нельзя для создания глобального (а не регионального) игрока. При этом, чем меньше членов конфедерации вначале - тем лучше, меньше споров на самом тяжелом этапе. США начинались с 13, дошли до 50.

2) Избегать включения "проблемных" игроков, пока Интермариум не установится немного. То есть избегать подсовывания под себя лишних мин. К примеру, Молдова из-за Приднестровья должна на время остаться в стороне. Когда Интермариум станет фактом жизни, определит внутренние механизмы, тогда он сам сможет убрать влияние любых третьих стран и окончательно закрыть конфликт.

Прибалты не только мало-значимые игроки, но они также создают целую кучу уязвимостей. Как отметил Фридман - тонкая полоска Прибалтики это легко теряемый кусок. Его роль заключается лишь в дополнительном раздражении России, которого и так будет хватать через Украину. В добавок - русское меньшинство в Латвии и Эстонии легко превращается в лишнее оружие в руках Москвы. А Литва легко превращается в троля Беларуси и Польши через дележку исторических шкур. Так что прибалты могут чутка подождать, пока конфедерация выработает свои внутренние порядки. А потом, если мы заслужим их доверие, то они смогут всегда присоединиться.

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Больш рэальна фармаванне на першым этапе палітыка-эканамічнае уз'яднанне вялікіх груп блізкіх і па ўзроўню развіцця і геаграфічна і ментальна.

Тыпу
1. РБ + Укр. + Прыб.
2. РП + Вуг. + Слав.
3, Рум. + Малд. + Балг.

Да, подобный подход предлагает Ходакевич. Только мне видятся два минуса:

Во-первых, пока они будут выпиливать свои союзы, то накуралесят столько нестыковок между подгруппами, что в итоге страны разойдутся еще дальше, а не ближе. Предлагаемый тут подход: определить, что именно в итоге надо, и потом не тратить усилия, нервы и время на лишние телодвижения.

Во-вторых, это займет кучу времени, за которую оппоненты конфедерации заложат не одну кучу собак под нее.

Поступать надо как дедушка Ельцин. Собрались в Вискулях - подписали - остальным поздно пить боржоми. Такую конфедерацию делать надо одним махом и с ключевыми игрокам. Чтобы если что, то мы уже в дамках. А потом можно и подрасти малек - по мере созревания возможностей, но не завися от них.

Имхо.

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И последнее - вовсе не факт, что мы по политическим пристрастиям ближе к той же Украине или Молдове. По каким-то бизнес вопросам наш подход может вполне оказаться ближе к венграм, а по социальным - так вообще к чехам. Поэтому опасно навязывать географические подгруппы. Надо сначала начать общаться и разобраться кто есть где.

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: The Confederation of Intermarium
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Трэба абавязкова ўлічваць эканамічныя аспекты.
Напрыклад, экспарт беларускай калійкі ідзе праз Латвію (самы кароткі і наладжаны) .
У Літве НПЗ Орленский (польскі).
Іншыя сталыя сувязі.
Як раздражняльнік Расіі прыбалты ўжо не коцяць.
Самым раздражняльнікам будзе РБ - верны саюзнік адвярнуўся.


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: The Confederation of Intermarium
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Some opinions from the YouTube users who already participatedin another discussion on our forum

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hell no ... I prefer liberal national democracy, hate any stupid union unless its based only on friendly cooperation ... common defense etc.? Never ...

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: The Confederation of Intermarium
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ANY union beetwen hostile states (like Poland vs Ukraine, Hungary vs Romania, Slovakia, etc) cannot exist until their problems not fixed. All of them. For example, what about Transylvania? Hungary will not join to the union, if the union dont care about Hungary's borders, and there are similar situations in many countries.

Other problem is the history and the historical viewpoints. For example, romanians say ''we are romans'' but its not true. They came from Bulgaria. Anyway, these problems can blow up the entire union before its even created.

And for gypsies... They MUST be clean from even Europe! They learned nothing about history, they know only killing and destroying. They are a plague. And the other ''minority'' that must be cleaned from here, is the jews. A coalition with jews in their states is doomed.
Founder and joining nations are must be respected, unlike in the EU.

And the union must care about its expansing. Nearly all of the empires in the history fell because its too fast expansing.

And if this union created, it must be more something like an alliance than a coalition. States are individual but work for a common goal: Domination of Europe.

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: The Confederation of Intermarium
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Альянс для доминирования в Европе? :-): :sh_ok:

Кого и над кем? :sh_ok:


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: The Confederation of Intermarium
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My country: Poland[u][/u]

Yet another good article on the Central Europeans Conutriec (CEC) and their need for cooperation.

My view is: why not?
We already have Visehrad - it is far insufficient, but it works anyhow. But we got even closer to the subject a couple years ago. President Kaczyński was planning to offer to President Juszczenko (shortly before the last one lost his second election) a strategical partneship (SP) between Ukraine and Poland. No doubt such SP would constitute a true core for further cooperation of the CEC, a core substantial enough to be a real palyer not only in Europe but even worldwide. This must have been felt as a dreadful threat in Moscow and Berlin.
What happened then, we do know.
But the cese is not over yet.

My remarks:

1. All the CEC are typical post-colonial area, with "elites" grown up by foreign metropolias.
Such "kreol elites" are definitely unable to produce anything original in the field of foreign policy. It seems that some decisive exchange of these "kreols" is a condition sine qua for any real politic in Intermarium.
Hungary: the only nation that has managed to do it so far.
Czech: not so bad, with President Klaus, but still a bit to do.
Slovakia: I don't know well their factual state. Would be nice to hera somethin on this topic on this forum. Seems to be kind of marasm.
Poland: ongoing struggle between "old kreol elites" now in power and the pretendents, gathering some potential for "new elites". Result unclear, both sides can overtake in the near future.
Ukraine: quite as in Poland, except their elites can be forced to quick shifts if Russia urges Ukraine with some territorial claims or some pressure on Ukrainian sovereignty. This would force very quick "polarisation" of their "elites", and maybe even the true exchange made under endangered nation's pressue.
Belarus: the worst case, but Poland and Ukraine are getting closer and closer. Hope for real exchange of the "elites" may be based on the dependance of "Łukaszenko elites" on the economic abilities of Russia. If Russia - as we know basing its economics on exportation of some raw industrial supplies - fails as it did some 20years ago, this may open a real way for "elite" exchange in Balarus. Maybe more real case than we expect.
Romania: I don't know well the case. Would be fine to learn about this here.
If the aboved mention exchange happens in at least two countries with real reasons for cooperation, we may wath this come true (as I mentioned Pol-Ukr SP).

2. CEC are concerned with a need for cooperation in different fields and to different degrees. The common point is an unwillingnes for political/economic domination of foreign big powers and their capital. This connects all this nations and should lead to "support the neighbur" policy. It is enough for cooperation and friendship, but may not suffice for confederation. Real factor for thightening plitical links is a real otside pressure on the free existance of the country. This led to Pol-Lith Union in the 14th century.
Germany may threats Czech and Poland directy, while Russia shadows Ukraine, Belarus and Poland. Slovakia, Hungary and Romania lie in a zone of idirect pressure of these two powers.
One possible idea might be a core Union between Belarus and/ or Ukraine and/or Poland, keeping thight relationship with somewhat less engaged Czech, Slovakia, Hungary and perhaps Romania. This would be similar to the 15th century Yagiellonic order in Central Europe, but certainly modified in a manner securing CEC from some ideas of domination from Poland (we got rid of such, but let us all be cautious).
ANYHOW, if some two nations of CEC decide to cooperate more closely than the rest, it is only good for all CEC. Such cooperation may always broaden, and provides bettter support for the neighbours being endangered by Germany, Russia or EU.

Here I must say I am not sure if Poland and Belarus are not the closest in the moral terms to launch some type of confederation, CERTAINLY when point 1 is satisfied.


My best regards
Wolflarsen


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Очень понравилась идея о том, что партии Интермариума должны преодолеть 10% барьер в каждой из стран участниц.

Тоже думал об этом, что политическая гонка в Интермариуме превратится просто в межнациональный конфликт и построение империи победителем, а так этого можно будет избежать и напротив, культурно сблизить народы.


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: The Confederation of Intermarium
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tesey7 писал(а):
Очень понравилась идея о том, что партии Интермариума должны преодолеть 10% барьер в каждой из стран участниц.

Тоже думал об этом, что политическая гонка в Интермариуме превратится просто в межнациональный конфликт и построение империи победителем, а так этого можно будет избежать и напротив, культурно сблизить народы.



I think that the only way of buidling cooperation in Intermarium can be democracy. There is now ay to force the nations into some unaccepted political frames. Any decisions must be thus made upon the basis of wide social suport, referendums seems to be an excellent way.

But reality may force some of the nations into something more concrete than only cultural and economic community. Imagine Ukraine is endangered by Russian aggression. That could press public opinion into more direct allies, including military.

Poland and Czechoslovakia didnot manage to ally against Germany before 1938 and this led them to the national catastrophe. We should avoid old mistakes.


Wolflarsen


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2 Wolflarsen

:co_ol:

I agree. :a_g_a:


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:co_ol:

I agree. :a_g_a:




Nice to hear :)

best regards


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: The Confederation of Intermarium
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Excellent words, Wolflarsen!

And thanks for your feedback.

One quick remark - the case of Belarus might be far trickier (in a positive way) than it seems from the surface. To outsiders Belarus looks like an awful dictatorship stuck in the Soviet past. Even though it's largely true, that might actually end up to be a plus rather than minus, because it gives it a resilience to survive the Kremlin's game.

When you look at the GDP per capita number it appears the Belarus is much better than, for example Ukraine:

Czech Republic - 26046
Poland - 21310
Romania - 15163
Belarus - 15040
Bulgaria -14603
Serbia - 11919
Ukraine - 7251
Moldova - 3392

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

In other words, Belarus is behind Poland about as much as Poland is behind the Czech Rep. It is at the same level as an EU member Romania, higher than another EU member - Bulgaria, and more than twice higher than Ukraine.

To put things simple - when you go at war with Russia you better be 300% ready. Ukraine started a fight with Russians without being ready and got severely beaten (economically). Moreover, your democracy works against you. Kremlin will find 1000 ways to destabilize your country through your own political infighting (remember what was going on during the last soims of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth).

Belarus is on THE very front line of engagement with Russia. There are no jokes here, no show off fist-waving, no right for a mistake. If you are not 100% sure in your shot - don't shoot, and stay put. Chances are had it not been a dictatorship, it wouldn't exist by now, or would exist at the level of Moldova.

What I'm trying to say, is that when the moment is right, Belarus could well become the main driver of Intermarium, and be well prepared for it.

Same way as you cannot be 40% pregnant, or even 80%. You can only be 100% pregnant. The moment Belarus turns to the West, it couldn't stay many years in line before joining the EU, or NATO, or else (like it works today). It will need a strategy and solution immediately - the same day, the same second. And Intermarium could be Belarus's best option. Thus, Belarus needs to make sure Intermarium is not just some vague partnership, but a significant economic and military power from Day One. No one will have higher stakes in Intermarium than Belarus.

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Woloh писал(а):
To put things simple - when you go at war with Russia you better be 300% ready. Ukraine started a fight with Russians without being ready and got severely beaten (economically). Moreover, your democracy works for the Russians who will find 1000 ways to destabilize your country through your own political infighting (remember what was going on during the last soims of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth).

Belarus is on THE very front line of engagement with Russia. There are no jokes here, no show off fist-waving, no right for a mistake. Chances are had it not been a dictatorship, it wouldn't exist by now, or would exist at the level of Moldova.


And what are the milestones of that readiness? Had it not been a dictatorship with the modern industrial assets that we had in the beginning of the ninetieth we would've been far better than the Czech Republic by now having gone through privatization and integration into the world economy. So, the problem is not in the economy. The problem is in the absence of the adequate to national interests political class, or as Sir Wolflarsen beautifully put it - in our own "kreol elite".

Therefore our exit strategy should be in impregnating our existing ruling class with Intermarium ideas.


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There probably needs to be the right situation for it.

And this "right" situation implies existence of a deep political crisis in Russia - no sooner, no later. However, the new elite - whoever it is - needs to be ready by the time is right.

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to: Woloh

1. Belarus economics
I actually see no reason why Belarus shouldn't be taken as a nation with fine economic abilities.
In my personal view Belarus is much like Sweden - somewhat smaller but a bit more populous.
Your strong sides are: good scientific level at many fields (I know sth on this), qualified engineering and highskilled workers in some branches, relatively competitive salaries, good "transit" location, very fine natural resources: unspoiled nature and big fresh water reservoirs (do you know we in Poland are already lacking fresh water in some areas???... Unbelievable, but true. It can happen in some 10 years we will buy water from Belarus, nevermind how strange it sounds). Whatever we think on Łukaszenko, state control over some strategic national resources and economics has been kept so far in Belarus, which may be also good in the future.
So Belarussian economy might certainly be at least not worse than Swedish, as the countries are of quite similar position.
To do so you need certainly to free your nation's energy, which cannot happen now. For "kreols" - in Poland, Bealrus and all over CEC - wont ever tolarate "regular capitalism" (a market system in which the economic succes is dependant only on individuals' personal skills, risk, luck and hardship). They must promote instead "compradorski capitalism" (this notion is used by some Polish conservative publicists like Stanisław Michalkiewicz and I feel unable to translate it) - it means a situation, when access to the market and economic succces is guaranteed by being a member of a lobby; while the strongest lobby, the very nucleus of the system, are the post-Soviet secret services.
Today's "kreol elites" cannot allow "regular capitalism", because they would lose immiedietlly their economic position: as they on usually are unable to competite on a free market. They can live only by privillige. So they must strangulate the nation's energy through holding "kompradorski capitalism" system for any price; otherwise they would soon be baggers.
It is another important reason for exchange of the "elites". Not only do they paralyze international efforts of the nation, but also strangulate its economy.
Certainly, how Belarus deal with its economics is only up to you: neither Poland nor anyone else should instruct you (maybe except you shouldn't folow Poland's way of selling 90 % of strategic resources abroad). But it seems to me unreal you could build up your country economically without moral and mental changes- and preferably total - in your "elite factor".
All I say on Belarus is not much different in Poland - we are actually just fighting our "kreol elites". But we are not as happy as Hungary on this way.
Anyhow, Belarus can be prosperous important North Europen nation with GDP arround Swedish, productive economy with some high tech and fine unspouiled nature.


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to: Woloh

2. How and when

What may be Belarus' way for some exchange of their "kreol elites" and when could your country leap out from Russia influence?
The first question I don't feel like competent to comment, I may only make some basic remark inspired by what I watch now in Poland.
What is the best soil for building a real background for new elites, is this part of youth for which the "old elites" have nothing to offer. "kreols" can buy individuals, they can also corrupt high rate of a nation: but no more then 10 %. Simply, mafia "compradorski capitalism" of "kreol elites" must LIVE OFF someone. So there always will be enough of youth that will never be involved by any donations or real benefits of the system, but they will be economically victimised instead. And most of the youth in CEC on usually don't accept anymore talkings about relativity of communism (like "there were some mistakes, but also good sides"). Simply, they were not involved. So it is possible to build some simple (and true) differentiation: THEY (post-communist "kreol" elites economically privilliged, betraying nation for abroad) and We, young, patriotic, victimised, READY TO CHANGE STH. Economic factor plus national pride means a way to change minds of a nation.
This can help to prepare "new elies". Then they must only wait till economic rope strangulates whole nation. In Belarus this moment should happen - as you have well noticed - when Russia gets into some serious political crisis - which can certainly come true. With empty pockets most of people who suppot or simply accept this sytem nowadays may suddenly jump to outrage. A hungry man can be stopped by police or military, but only if police and military are well and regularly paid. When regime loses money for his dogs, the time for "new elites" comes to come to power.


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to Woloh
wHEN
Quitting the alliance with Russia and shifting to the West leaves Belarus with a threat of Russian direct or indirect intervention.
Not only a deep political crisis of Russia would be the right time then, but Belarus should also observe if the West is able to help Belarus in military field.
EU is outside question here, they have neither will nor capabilities to confront with Russia.
What can indicate good time for Belarus would be either or toghether

the USA shift to Central Europe and its noticable presence in Poland or the BAltics for surely the USA is able to confront with Russia and win

or-and if Poland gets through a revolution similar to the Hungarian, exchanges its elites, return to kind of Intermarium policy as did Kaczynski, and if Poland SIGNIFICANTLY ENLARGES ITS ARMY. For if Poland offers an alliance to Belarus without reforming its today military Belarus risks the fate of Poland being guaranteed by Breat Britain in 1939, while Britain had some 9 divisions.

or-and if Poland and Ukraine launches some Strategical Partnership and reform their armies + see above.


My best regards
hope i dont rubbish too much your forum
Wolflarsen


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wHEN
Quitting the alliance with Russia and shifting to the West leaves Belarus with a threat of Russian direct or indirect intervention.
Not only a deep political crisis of Russia would be the right time then, but Belarus should also observe if the West is able to help Belarus in military field.
EU is outside question here, they have neither will nor capabilities to confront with Russia.
What can indicate good time for Belarus would be either or toghether

the USA shift to Central Europe and its noticable presence in Poland or the BAltics for surely the USA is able to confront with Russia and win

or-and if Poland gets through a revolution similar to the Hungarian, exchanges its elites, return to kind of Intermarium policy as did Kaczynski, and if Poland SIGNIFICANTLY ENLARGES ITS ARMY. For if Poland offers an alliance to Belarus without reforming its today military Belarus risks the fate of Poland being guaranteed by Breat Britain in 1939, while Britain had some 9 divisions.

or-and if Poland and Ukraine launches some Strategical Partnership and reform their armies + see above.


My best regards
hope i dont rubbish too much your forum
Wolflarsen


Not at all Sir, you've presented us with very valuable views and thoughts already. Pleaese do not hesitate to continue.


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: The Confederation of Intermarium
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TO: SD

Thanks a lot, but please don't call me "Sir" Wolflarsen - I feel old this way, while I am "only" 33!!

I must say this is a very fine portal, for me the only way to exchange some opinions with some intelligent guys from Belarus. And an opportunity to learn something.

best regards
Wolflarsen


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: The Confederation of Intermarium
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TO: SD

Thanks a lot, but please don't cll me "Sir" Wolflarsen - I feel old this way, while I am "only" 33!!

I must say this is a very fine portal, for me the only way to exchange some opinions with some intelligent guys from Belarus. And an opportunity to learn something.

best regards
Wolflarsen


You didn't get my drift: Sir - is a bit of irony to soften up a little our conversation. You seem to be too official with your "best regards" and the rest. Feel at home here. We welcome any opinion and people such as yourself we welcome twice as much!


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Aye aye Sir


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Thanks Wolflarsen!

It is very interesting to read you, and I should say all of your points resonate really well with what we discuss on this forum.
Let me put few clarifications, that actually make my points even more in line with yours.

By no means I think Belarus is not fit for a good normal economics, like that of Sweden (or rather Singapore, taking into account political pre-history). Although, I believe everyone on this forum will admit that Belarus does feel a deficit of qualified macroeconomic cadre, which is a fixable problem.

The main problem of Belarus is that it is in a different place geographically and geopolitically from the rest of Intermarium. Russia (or rather Kremlin) will eat its guts out if Belarus changes its vector. You cannot imagine a more significant geopolitical defeat for Kremlin than loosing of Belarus. Mostly for internal Russian reasons. If they cannot keep even Belarus in their sphere, than who they can? If there's no Belarus, there's no empire, no Ukraine, no Caucasus, no Central Asia, nothing. And when there's no empire - there is no need in Kremlin within Russia. Moscow will fight for Belarus till the last bullet, or if they can't - they'll wage an economic havoc equivalent of a nuclear explosion in Minsk (they already did few public demonstrations last year).

Why do you think Ukraine lives so badly comparing to seemingly economically inefficient Belarus? Because it is a public example. An example to Belarusians of what happens to you when you disobey. And an example to Ukrainians of goods that fall on you "for free" if you stay in the loop. Russia uses Belarus to curb Ukraine.

Turning against Kremlin in a Czech / Hungarian / Solidarność way will be something akin the Kosciuszko uprising - brave, noble, but foolish. The result of this will be a guaranteed defeat for the next 120 years (like it happened to Poland before Pilsudski came).

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: The Confederation of Intermarium
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But then comes your point about compradorski capitalism - both in Russia and Belarus. Under normal conditions it is a bad thing. But in our case - the only way to fight off one kreole elite is by smashing it into the other.

It is not even the "Kremlin kreole elite" that interferes into Belarus. It is a different transnational corporation that I would call KGB, Inc. A transnational mafia of ex- and current secret service guys melted with state apparatus. Under normal conditions they have no chances in life. That's why they never play by the rules, and that's where their advantage comes from. Recently, they have completely taken over Russia. They also control KGB in Belarus. But they also have one problem. And this problem is that Lukashenko doesn't play by the rules either. They have a love-hate relationship with him. He keeps on constantly changing heads of KGB in Belarus, with the last big resignation happening just a month ago when he removed Zaitsev.

I'm not defending Luka - by no means. But he is a factor. A factor of maintaining Belarus in a decent shape until the moment is right. And the moment will be right when two things happen:

1) Something cracks inside of Russia and their attention is diverged from Belarus to internal problems (which is where things seam to be moving now)
2) There is a force within Intermarium which Belarus could join (or help create and join) with one strike of a signature - a force comparable to that of Russia. We know this won't be NATO, because NATO doesn't want to move that fast (we all saw what happened to Georgia in 2008). I believe this force will be something of an extended Visigrad Battle Group which is meant to become operational in 2016.

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: The Confederation of Intermarium
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Woloh,Вышеградская боевая группа, к сожалению, позиционирует себя как часть НАТО и подает себя как проводника к членству в НАТО.Получается,что она не самостоятельна и вхождение в нее может рассматриваться как присоединение к одной из враждебных сторон,со всеми вытекающими из этого последствиями.
Это очень большая ошибка,поскольку ее нейтральность по отношению к НАТО и России принесла бы намного больше пользы как Украине так и Грузии,так и Беларуси.
Россия бы не рассматривала, например, членство Украины в Вышеградской боевой группе как примыкание к альянсу НАТО,воспринимало бы как самостоятельное объединение славян.Это было бы своеобразным компромиссным решением,открыло бы доступ Беларуси даже в условиях диктатора Лукашенко возможность присоединения к этой группе и не нарушало бы взаимоотношений с Россией.А так, по сути, Вышеградская группа имеет в своем составе руководство которое фактически нейтрализует ее потенциал ,искажает смысл цели его создания ,что является предательством по отношению к народам центральной Европы.
Украина просто не сможет при таких условиях позволить себе присоединиться к ВЫшеградской группе,что равнозначно вступлению в предбанник НАТО.
http://rus.newsru.ua/ukraine/23apr2008/estooon.html
Более того,вступление Украины в НАТО породило бы меньше претензий и противоречий чем вступление в Вышеградскую боевую группу,которая будет восприниматься со вступлением Украины,как потенциально направленная конкретно против России.Получается провокация целью которой противопоставить славянские народы против России и подготовка потенциально опасной возможности горячего конфликта в котором НАТО будет вести роль стороннего наблюдателя.Это ловушка не только для Украины,но и для для всех славян.Следовало бы поискать инициаторов создания Вышеградской группы ее стратегию и программу.Нельзя создавать военный альянс без предварительного создания конфедерации и экономической интеграции.

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: The Confederation of Intermarium
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Ну естественно ВБГ не может позиционировать себя как анти-НАТО. При этом, весьма существенный элемент, что она НЕ НАТО. Ведь ничего не мешало создать ее внутри альянса.

Но должен огорчить, Интермариум создал свою боевую группу не потому, что для них НАТО слишком агрессивное, а наоборот - потому что НАТО слишком медленно ворочается, и слишком заангажировано когда дело доходит до жаренного.

К тому же что такое боевая группа? Это не альянс стран - это всего лишь несколько военных подразделений из разных стран, завязываемых в одну единицу. Обычно порядка 1500 человек. До полноценного альянса эта ВБГ должна себя где-то зарекомендовать.

Согласен, вступление Украины и Беларуси в НАТО было бы более понятным шагом. Но! Его никогда не случится, поскольку кремлевские дружки в Берлине и Париже всегда затупят тему, как уже сделали с Украиной. Потому придется искать варианты.

Не надо бояться "расстроить Россию". Как раз наоборот, скорейший провал бывает от полумер. Лучше вообще не рыпаться, чем рыпаться на авось (пример - Грузия). Просто когда идешь насуперек Кремлю надо бить так, чтобы без шансов на ответ (как сделали прибалты сразу вступив в НАТО, а не заморачиваясь полумерами). Именно так геополитика и делается. Это совершенно естественные шаги.

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Belarus had not yet evolved to the level of turn-around. But it will. Two kreole elites are heading for a collision. Same as Russian kreole elite already collided with the Ukrainian one. These beasts need to weaken each other, and then our time will come.

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: The Confederation of Intermarium
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TO: WOLOH

Thank for your reply

There is nothing to add on Belarus situation to what you said: I think you pointed it very well.

(To me Kremlin elites are not "kreols", "kreols" mean to me elites installed in countries that were for long submitted to foreign rules. Poland is good example: the so called Polish "elites" were grown by communism and post-communism and they always feel a ned to look for a master abroad, while Russia is different: their mafia elites do not betray their sovereginty).

I agree with you on:
Belarus should surely be very cautious as to any conflict, that may bring any blood spiling.
Lukaszenko will do anything to prevent Russia from sweeping Belarus. (but he cannot avoid some strategical concessions in countriy's independence for Russia).
Russia treats Belarus as their eastern "bastion" and will not shed it from its hands without fight - at least under normal cirumstances; also for propaganda and prestige reasons.


Out off the two conditions sine qua non for Belarus changing its vector that you have mentioned (Russia crisis and real political power in Central Europe able to ally and secure Belarus) I will try to say a bit later ew words - if you don't mind -on the second one ....

to be continued....


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TO: WASERDAST

Any participation of Ukraine in some western-oriented military cooperation will be felt as betrayal by Russia. Never mind Visehrad or the NATO. Ukraine must answer if it is better not to upset Russia but stay without allies or worsen is relation with Moscow and be moored in ome alliance. The question is very difficult, I realise this pretty well.
cheers


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: The Confederation of Intermarium
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MILITARY IN INTERMARIUM

1.No illusions - be ready for a conflict


Any idea of building some long-term sovereignty of the Central European Countries (CEC) and especially of building some deeper cooperation between them mustnot omitt a factor of military power. Simply, in this place, between Russia and Germany, there is no space for nations living in a manner of, let's say, Ireland (even if these nations really desire this style of existence).

I must also say - after I read WASERDOT comment - that we should live under no illusion that any attempts of independent cooperation between CEC will be ever tolerate by Russia (or Germany). Russia may tolerate some fights with Ukrainian or Belarus authorities as long as they feel the both nations stay in their influence. Russia might also tolerate some cooperation of CEC that would be felt undangerous for Russuia, but weakening NATO or America (for instance Visehrad without strong military, but softening NATO structures etc.). Independent, big Central European initiative will be immiedietly felt as a direct challange to Moscow and will meet brutal actions. Do you remember President Yuszczenko face? Do you remember Georgia invasion? How about Lech KAczynski case?
Anyone who wants to act independently in Intermarium must build fine military, as for brutality there is only brutality.
What I want to say is that at least some CEC are undoubtedly able EVEN TODAY to build military capable of effectively stopping Russia. And even without the USA aid, but USA will help us, you may believe, if they see "good fight" overhere.

LEt us look then more closely on what we have and what we may have...

to be continued....


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: The Confederation of Intermarium
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2. DEFINING DANGER

I speak now ONLY on a conventional war, any nuclear considerations put for later.

3 types of war can endanger CEC:

-"1939 campaign" - when an agressor wants to invade the whole country and capture its main centres, destroy all military of a defendant, perhaps install his puppet authiorities.
-"Georgian Campaign" - when aggressor wish to break a defendant, but he limits his war aims to capture only some regions of a defendant, preferably with some minorities;
-"Serbian Campaign" - when an aggressor concentrates upon air and missile striking on the vital centres of a defendant, wishing to destroy or paralyze his military and spread terror on civilians.

Who can launch such wars on CEC?
Mainly Russia, but also Germany, EU or NATO. I will stay however with Russia as the main opponent, as the others are much less probable in the next couple of years.

After the Georgia War 2008 Russia has significantly reformed its military, and now it keeps on the so called North-Western Strategical Direction (invoving Ukraine, Baltics, Finland and Poland directions) arround 350 thousands of soldiers of land forces. They are the best equipped and best paid part of the whole Russian army (total of some 800-9000 thousands of land forces).

It is then a probable opponent of CEC countries in a war against Russia: an army of arround 350 thousands, with some 2 thousands of good tanks, supported by some 500-1000 tactical aircrafts.

to be continued....


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: The Confederation of Intermarium
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3. What do we have?

Let me speak on the Visehrad group and its capabilities first.

Czech, Slovakia and Hungary have little armies, 2-brigades of land forces each, almost no tanks (Czech some 30 tanks!), little airforces (Slovakia soon will stay without any aircrafts, Hungary and Czech some 15 Grippen air-strikers each).
Their infantry has definitely insuficient number of anti-crafts. All together their armies could be beaten by Belarus 70 thousand big army.
In case of a war against Russia waged in Central Europe (let us say to defend Belarus) these 3 countries could probably field together one able mechanised division.

Poland's army is of arround 60 thousands of land forces + some 20 thousands of trained reserve. Some 700 tanks, but only half of them are able to confront Russian tanks on somewhat equal terms (128 Leopards and 230 PT). Most of artillery still post-Soviet (500 "Gozdziks"). Some not bad antiaircraft, but not sufficient. Some good new equipment in mechanisaed infantry, including new Armoured Vehicles and good anti-tank missiles (Spikes and others). Good special forces. Very poor man power in reserve.
Airforces: 48 F16, and some 70 modernised post-Soviet airstrikers.
Polish army is far insufficient in numbers to cover main vital centres of Poland.

WHAT really can Visehrad do today is:
- if Poland is attacked by Russia: gather some 100 thousand big army arround Warsaw and fight till the NAto's five divisions (such is a plan) come to stregthen us.
- if the Baltics are attacked by Russia:send some 20 thousands soldiers all along with the rest of the NATO forces to help Estonia, LAtvia or Lithuania.


Visibly, today's Visehrad war capabilities are not sufficient to stop Russia in Central Europe withouth help of the NATO>


to be continued....


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: The Confederation of Intermarium
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3. de MILITARY FERENDA


CAN then Visehrad nations build some military capable to stop Russia?
NO doubt yes, if they change their mentality, lift up budget military and find proper formula for organizsational issue of their armed forces. As Milton Friedman said: OF COURE YOU CAN HAVE BIG MILITARY. IF ISRAEL HAS SUCH AND SPENDS SOME 9 % OF ITS INCOMES FOR DEFENCE then CAN DO SO POLAND.


What Poland need and can afford is an army of Turkish-South Korean type. These two countries have explosive neighbourhood, too, and allies far away from their mainlands. But they muster armies of either big professional forces or numerous conscript contingents. Turkish land forces stay for as much as over 400 thousands troops, Korean more than 500 thousands.
Can POland afford such expenses?
Suerely yes. Today POland spends more money on army than Iran does. Prime minister Tusk decided to transfer some 28 mld PZL for Greece' help. This is a price of some 18 Scorpene class submarines! Or a few hundreds 3d generation tanks! SO YES, Poland even today has enough money to build proper army. If the money is not wasted for unimportant issues.
Proper Polish land forces = 180 thousands of professionals + some 250-300 of conscripts. Just like Turkey.
Problem is, if the people accept return of the conscript system. I suppose there is every chance that the growing number of young people demonstrating their patriotism on the streets of Polish cities can support this idea. Just like in Hungary.

Polish army of "Turkish style" would be certainly a totally new factor in creating Intermarium cooperation. Such an army would give true hope for beating Russian offensive of 350 thousand big army all over CEC, especially, if other nations contribute.

It must be said that even with present poor inside rules Poland is quite focused on the defence problem and makes some efforts to build its armies capabilities. As the ongoing political fight goes in Poland, the matter of reforming the army surfaces and is connecetd to our attitude to Germany. Tusk and his equipe relies on Bundeswehra aid, while opposition shows will to not to believe in the German good will and build more independent forces.
But real will to change must come from the "ELITE EXCHANGE" we talked about a wee bit earlier.

CZech is another nation, that can afford reforming its army. Czech have enough money to do so. Czech army might possibly be also of a "Turkish style" (big professional core+big conscript contingent), but perhaps "Scandinavian army" type - with smaller proffesional core, but high number of trained conscripts - would fit better to the CZech situation. Problem is if Czechs are mentally able to train coscripts and keep them in good shape.
How big should at least Army of Czech Republic be should be answered on the example of Finland: nation twice smaller than CZechs but much better prepared to a war - some 35 thosuands of a professional core + not less than 250-300 thousands of trained conscripts contingent.
But no doubt Czech should spend more of the money they really have on airforces and anticrafts, and buy some number of the 3d generation tanks (at least 150). NO DOUBT also CZECH CAN AFFORD THIS FINANCIALLY.
It must be remarked that Czech motivation for army reform must arise from the awarness of the Chech vulnarability to German pressure. Czech Republic is much less willing to oppose Russia, as they believe Russia is no big threat to them. But Czech cannot oppose Germany alone, they need Poland to do so and otehr Visehrads. Then CZech must be aware that acces to military allies means neccesity to fight all along Poles against Russia, if necessary.

Hungary and Slovakia: very bad case.

The only good thing to be said on them is they are nations with fine military ethos, so their soldiers are not cowardish.
BUt they have no good equipment nor will they quickly have, as their nations display NO POLITICAL WILL to rise war expenses.
It derrives from the fact that both of them feel quite safe from any land assault. They may fear mainly the "Serbian campaign type", but rather from the West than from the East. If Slovakia or Hungary decides to oppose German plans of organising EU and break German and West capital plans to dominate these two nations (please pay attention to how the 2 EURO COIN case is settled between Slovakia and Brussel these days.... very intreresting) they cannot be sure if one day EU will not try to disciplinate them. These two countries are also much outside the USA interest, so they may fear being left alone if Eu under German leadership urges them.
So HUngary and Slovakia search for defence formula in Visehrad group. It is justified politically, as any foreign military intervention to the nations would harass Polish and Czech national security. But BUdapest and Bratislava need to change their attitude and think of at least more efficient air defence and fielding at least one fully equiped brigade of land forces each to common Visehrad action, including conflict with Russia. Neither HUngaru nor Slovakia needs to keep as big land armies as Poland and Czech. So if they decide to modify their land forces one day, some smaller copy of the Czech army would suffice, but with good and strong air defence capability.
As Victor Orban rules over Hungary bringssome positive economical results in near future, it is possible in the ongoing years Budapest will gain some will and financial means to invest in his war capabilities.
As to Slovakia, without direct help from Poland or CZech, Bratislava seems not thinking of army reforming in the near future.


to be continued....


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: The Confederation of Intermarium
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Outside Visehrad

Ukraine:

Ukraine seems to be now in the situation of Poland some 10 years ago. It means they want to eliminate old post-soviet type conscript army and build purely professional army of some 80-100 thousands of land troops. It is good. It allows to eliminate some patology of the old-postcommunist armies, that we know well from Poland 10 years ago. But this fascination with purely professional army we also had some time ago in POland may also finish one day in Ukraine: whan they discover that 100 thousand of land forces even with better equipment is a way not enough to guarantee their defence against Russia. Let us remember 350 thousand big Russian offensive army is in the game.
Ukraine is also nation with the biggest territory and prevailing flatlands - especially in the East. So Ukraine'e thinking of self-defence against Russia must be at least close to Polish, if not more enhanced. "Turkish style army" would fit Ukraine the best, but its problem is poor economy. Ukraine spends today at least half less money on defence than Poland, having more numerous army. Is there political will in Ukraine to change it? The answer would be again similar to Poland's situation. Big, significant shift in Ukraine depends on their elites awarness and possibly some economical changes (which can be hard for the reasons we discussed earlier). Here we see the best example of how "kreols'" mentality of CEC elites impediments their countries: if Ukraine had had true elites some 20 years ago, they would have never agreed to pass its big nuclear weopon arsenal to Russia. From behind this curtain Ukraine might now safely reform its conventional forces.
One hopeing sign is that for the first time since many yeasr this year Janukovich administration prepared to buy some new
warcrafts for Ukrainian Forces: some new navals and land equipment. It indicates that even those "elites" they have now began to notice necesity to armament.
Noticably, this nation iS THE ONLY NATION all along with Poland in the Intermarium that posses really big manpower reserve. This should push Ukraine into important military player in the future, if their authorities do some real effort.
Most probable scenario for Ukraine as to their will to arm is buiding new professional army for the next 5-10 years and than suddenly change vector for an army I described as of "turkish style". This can change if Ukraine earlier enters military conflict with Russia, especially of the Georgian type". Ukrainian will have then quickly and under pressure make decisions to build big, powerful armed forces with some 300 thousands conscript plus 100 thousands professionals, which should suffice to effectively oppose Russian land aggression.


to be continued....


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: The Confederation of Intermarium
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Belarus military: next week. Needs separate attitude. I wont manage to gets through this today. :pi_rat:

Coclusions:
There is no doubt that in the Intermarium there can be built military power capable of beating Russia in a defensive conventional war waged in Central Europe. To me it seems the core must be Poland, as Ukraine needs much more time to for gaining economical ability for military reforms, and other Visehrad nations can only be a powerful factor if Warsaw does the main job. However, Ukraine may be suddenly forced into arms race by aggressive policy of Russia, nevermind of the Ukrainian financial state.
Belarus with reformed army and its strategical location could be crutial factor changing balance in the Central Europe, but before it joins any Intermarium Partnership, there such a partenrship myust already exist, well armed and powerful.
But even Poland alone, without Ukraine, with reformed "turkish style" army supported with some CZech, Slovak and Hungarian reinforces constitutes new power factor in the Intermarium, strong enough to change Russia's pressure on the Baltics and Belarus. Russia only risks war when is sure of victory and when Russian advantage is overwhelming.
One thing is certain: it is no lack of human or financial means that blocks such reforms. It is only a matter of political attitude. How Poland wastes big money helpig Greece instead of investing their military shows well the case.
Reformed army of Visehrad with Polish army of a "turkish style" will also attract more American military presence to the CEntral Eurpe. It is what STARTFOT always says. But we shouldnot rely on the USA help only, we should act much like Turkey does. It is possible with some political changes.


However, I still believe that the real military power of the Intermarium lies in the following structure: Poland, Belarus and Ukraine in Strategical Partnership - Czech, Slovakia, Hungary in the closest and friendly cooperation to the SP.
[b] What is really interesting then is: how the possible Partership of Belarus, Ukraine and Poland could cooperate militarily? These 3 nations seems most endangerd by Russia and if ever Balarus enters into tight political links with Poland and/or Ukraine what would be its role in the common Partnership? Belarus will forver be the most "front nation" - as Woloh said - and this must lead to a special activity and special responsability for shaping the possible SP military policy. On the other hand, Belarus is entitled to demand constant military assistance including presence of powerful contingents from its partners on Belarus territory. How Belarus people would think about that?
On the other hand, anticipating further consideretions on conventional Belarus army, it should be said that if all built upon "turkish style" - Belarus, Polish and/or Ukrainian army cooperating in Strategical PArtership - would probably be pretty close in conventional power to RUssia. This is a true change in the world balance, really. Another important question is if the CEC should try to posses nuclear weapon and if so, how should they obtain it?
Woloh mentioned sth like "we (Belarus) will be ready to lead the Intermarium". If that is a will to introduce some original attitude and ideas how to promote and lead true sovereignty of our Region and how should we shape our policy worldwide - would be very interesting to hear sth from you. How should such a big political being like BL-UKR-PL SP function in the world policy? The voice of such SP would be of similair weight to what is Germany-France SP. It implies some policy toward many issues, not only regional: from Palestine problem to the WTO policy. Any ideas???
[/b]

One thing is certain to me: military factor is crutial for any real policy in the Intermarium area. Witghout it we always will be only dreaming.

This time I really quit (and wont trouble you no more for a few weeks).

Wll be nice to hear sth on the subject from Belarus

cheers
Wolflarsen


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: The Confederation of Intermarium
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Great overview - thanks Wolflarsen!

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